Decentralized and Strategic Diplomacy

Mexico-California-Texas

If California and Texas were countries, they would undoubtedly be the most important nations for Mexico after the United States. These border states are the most populous and wealthy in the northern neighboring country. They account for nearly half of the total trade between the two nations and host approximately two-thirds of the Mexican diaspora.

Trump 2.0 (2025-2029) has created a deepening of political polarization in the neighboring country and a direct attack on our diaspora, especially for the nearly 5.5 million undocumented immigrants. We face an environment of hostility and, at best, negligence from Washington, D.C., towards the border and the ten border states of both countries. Therefore, Mexican diplomacy, in collaboration with the border states—Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas—must decentralize and forge a strategic relationship with U.S. subnational governments.

This white paper, or bilateral action proposal, explains the importance of these two border states in the overall bilateral relationship, proposes actions to strengthen cross-border economic and political cooperation, and develops a series of recommendations in three areas of strategic cooperation: border infrastructure, education and consular diplomacy.

The Weight of California and Texas in the Bilateral Relationship
The states of California and Texas stand out in their relationship with Mexico because of close trade and sociocultural ties, explained by their geographic proximity, shared history, and the presence of more than 28 million Mexican and Mexican-American people in both states.

In 2023, Mexico was the primary market for both states’ exports, valued at $33.3 billion for California and $129.6 billion for Texas. California ranked as the third state receiving the most imports from Mexico, valued at $61.5 billion. Mexico has been Texas’ primary trading partner for at least 16 years, with imports from Mexico reaching $142.7 billion in 2023. Trade with China, Mexico’s second-largest trading partner in 2023, pales in comparison with Chinese exports to Mexico valued at $81.5 million and imports at $18.7 million.

In terms of population, California and Texas reflect the new demographic reality of the United States: by 2045, racial and ethnic minorities will constitute the majority of the population. In both states, two out of every five residents are Latinos or Hispanics. California has 16.2 million people of Mexican origin, accounting for 34% of the national total, while Texas has 12.4 million, or 26% of the total.

Mexican diplomacy recognizes the importance of these two states through its consular presence: 21 of the 53 consulates in the United States are located in California (10) and Texas (11).

Strengthening Economic and Trade Ties
Cross-border trade and production are central to Mexico’s relationships with California and Texas. Up until now, Mexican border states have greatly benefited from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the reconfiguration of production chains through nearshoring. Nuevo León (39%) and Coahuila (12%) received the largest foreign direct investment derived from nearshoring between January 2021 and September 2023.

The Texas government has successfully fostered trade relations with its Mexican counterparts. In 2004, it signed the Agreement for Regional Progress with four neighboring Mexican states (Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas) to create jobs and expand economic opportunities. Currently, it has trade representation offices in Monterrey and Mexico City under its economic development and tourism office, promoting exports and attracting foreign direct investment. Moreover, the Texas governor maintains personal relationships with neighboring Mexican governors. For instance, during the last visit of Coahuila’s governor to Texas, Greg Abbott welcomed him to the official residence, where they celebrated the bicentennial of the Coahuila-Texas state foundation.

Economic production and innovation between California and Baja California have also been encouraged. The Cross Border Xpress (CBX) pedestrian bridge, which makes Tijuana Airport a cross-border airport, stands out. The CBX is an unprecedented private initiative facilitating cross-border trade and access to Baja California’s tourist destinations.

The CaliBaja region (made up of the 18 cities in San Diego County and northern Baja California municipalities) exemplifies cross-border integration and complementarity. This region, home to nearly seven million people, boasts a tradition of cross-border co-production through textile assembly plants (maquiladoras) since the 1970s. It now hosts emerging industries such as medical tourism and biotechnology, capitalizing on market complementarities. For example, Thermo Fisher, the world’s leading company for scientific testing, headquartered in Carlsbad, operates an innovation and design office in Tijuana employing more than 500 computer engineers.

Recommendations

• California could emulate Texas by establishing economic promotion offices in Baja California and Mexico City to actively promote subnational economic initiatives and leverage nearshoring opportunities.
• Develop and strengthen public-private partnerships in both states and in Mexico. Chambers of commerce and business associations have been pivotal in fostering a binational business-friendly environment. Noteworthy examples include the Texas Association of Business (TAB), which led a Texan delegation to Claudia Sheinbaum’s inauguration, and the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, which annually visits both nations’ capitals. In October 2024, it coordinated a delegation of more than 120 business and community leaders to Mexico City.

Latino Political Representation
The Mexican diaspora in California and Texas serves as a natural bridge between their new country and their homeland. In 2021, more than 1,800 local elected officials in California were Latinos, more than double the number in 2001. In Texas, this figure reached 2,800.

As UC Berkeley political scientist David Ayón has explained, Latinos in California have conquered positions of power, particularly in the Sacramento Assembly and Senate since the 1980s. In Texas, with a younger diaspora and an overwhelmingly Republican state government, Latinos still have significant progress to make. In Sacramento, Mexican-American representation in the state congress has, for example, led to a more open stance on migration, absent in Texas.

Recommendation

• Mexican diplomacy should forge strategic alliances with major Latino power groups in California and Texas to promote ethnic lobbying that enhances diaspora integration and strengthens binational ties. These efforts should not diminish the importance of consular documentation and protection services.

Strategic Opportunity Areas

Border Infrastructure
Mexico-U.S. border infrastructure consistently lags behind integration processes and cross-border needs. In the United States, building a new border crossing requires presidential authorization, involving a decade-long process entailing all three government levels on both sides of the border (26 U.S. and 17 Mexican agencies) and increasing participation from civil society and economic agents. This complex, binational system demands planning, political will and business lobbying on both sides of the border.

Infrastructure vision for the mid-21st century must address diverse demands and technological advances. It requires a simple, functional, high-tech, carbon-efficient multimodal infrastructure catering to vehicle and pedestrian flows as cities grow closer to the border. Such projects should also foster cross-border community identity, not just serve as crossing points, as exemplified by the Binational Cultural Center in Matamoros-Brownsville.

The 1,988-mile border has 59 crossings and bridges. Post-9/11 security concerns and recurring migration crises since 2014 have challenged the efficiency required for binational life and economic integration.

Texas and California have different models for financing border infrastructure. Texas relies heavily on private investments, while California projects are typically government-funded. Their priorities also vary: Texas focuses on cost and distance efficiency, while California emphasizes environmental regulations.

In California, SANDAG (a government body) and the Smart Border Coalition (a civil society organization) are essential allies for planning, building and implementing border crossings.

Recommendations

• Accelerate the implementation of binational infrastructure projects.
• Strengthen the work of the Binational Bridges and Border Crossings Group and the Joint Working Committee on Border Transportation Planning to expedite binational infrastructure implementation by reviewing regulations and administrative structures of agencies in both countries.

Education
Border areas, particularly Tijuana-San Diego and Matamoros-Brownsville, share significant student populations, creating a distinctly transnational educational dynamic. Thousands of Mexican students attend U.S. high schools to increase their chances of better access to universities. Families of deported and voluntarily returned individuals enrolling children in Mexican schools without Spanish proficiency present daily challenges.

The educational challenge for border areas is enormous: how to prepare future generations for an increasingly globalized binational environment and develop enough human capital to unlock the border region’s economic potential.

California and Texas have exceptional public university systems playing leading roles in promoting binational education. The main challenge is providing Mexican students residing in border areas with in-state tuition in U.S. institutions. In 2023, California took a historic step: its Assembly passed Bill 91 allowing community colleges to offer in-state tuition to low-income Mexicans living near the border. Southwestern Community College in Chula Vista, which saw a 20% enrollment increase in its first year of implementation, is the first to leverage this new law.

The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) pioneered offering in-state tuition to Mexican border students through specific agreements since 1987 through the Programa de Asistencia Estudiantil (PASE). Other universities have similar programs, such as the Border County Tuition Program at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), which facilitates reduced tuition for Mexican students.

Texas State University (TXST) has expanded educational services by partnering with an educational center in Querétaro to offer degree programs without requiring travel to the United States. Some Baja California universities, like CETYS Universidad, have developed a network of U.S. accreditations, enabling students to benefit from local prices while meeting international educational standards.

Recommendations

• Leverage the promotion of Conahcyt (National Council of Humanities, Science, and Technology) to a federal ministry to reinstate the macro agreement with the University of California system and strengthen the existing one with the University of Texas. These agreements previously enabled numerous doctoral and postdoctoral scholarships for Mexican students at two of the most important U.S. educational systems.
• Return to the collaboration model with the UC-Mexico Initiative of the University of California system (Alianza UC México), through which joint research projects were funded between the ten UC campuses and Mexican universities.
• Establish Transborder Working Groups for Tex-Mex and CaliBaja regions to unlock the educational potential of border areas. These groups, to be created in 2025 and coordinated by consulates and university presidents from both sides, will focus on three missions:

1. Develop a strategic plan to expand access to in-state tuition at higher education institutions in California and Texas.
2. Update systems to monitor and enhance cross-border academic collaboration, particularly shared students.
3. Create strategic transborder programs to capitalize on nearshoring opportunities (For example, Cetys University is already doing this with the University of Arizona in semiconductors.)

Consular Diplomacy
The consular network serves as the “operational arm” of decentralized diplomacy towards the neighboring country. Consulates General, the primary link with local authorities and leaders, act as regional embassies. They also handle initiatives of documentation, protection, trade promotion, cultural initiatives and project Mexico’s public image.

It is essential to revitalize the Coordination of Consuls in California (COCOA) and the Texas Coordination of Consuls (TEXCOCO).

Facing the challenges of Trump 2.0 requires enhanced consular presence and coordination, strategic alliances with local actors, improved traditional services, budgets reflecting consular work as a public policy priority and lobbying efforts recognizing the diaspora’s strategic role in these states.

Recommendations

• Strengthen consular presence in state capitals—Sacramento and Austin—and coordinate efforts between consular offices from these locations. The appointment of consuls general must consider that they will act as state coordinators, which requires leadership and experience. Experience is essential to effectively promote Mexico’s causes with discretion and without getting entangled in the severe political polarization affecting the neighboring country.
• The Foreign Minister and the President herself should make periodic visits to the capitals and major cities of these states, treating them as if they were the second and third most important countries for Mexico.
• The size and dispersion of the Mexican diaspora make it imperative for the consular network to develop and strengthen alliances with local actors such as civil organizations advocating for human rights and health, chambers of commerce, and universities, among others.
• The appointment system for documentation services at consulates is generally inefficient, often dominated by intermediaries or scalpers. Under Trump 2.0, spaces and timelines will shrink further. It is urgent to strengthen documentation and protection systems with adequate staff and appointment systems, which can only be achieved with budgets that reflect the reality of the mission.

Rethinking the Bilateral Relationship

California and Texas exercise unprecedented autonomy and freedom in their relationships with their southern neighbor. Examples include Governor Greg Abbott’s migration policies in Texas and California’s pandemic-era subsidies for undocumented workers, challenging the Trump administration.

Mexico, including its public, private and social sectors, must capitalize on the interest and willingness of these states with long-term strategies, recognizing that each state requires different approaches. California appears as Mexico’s best friend globally, fostering reciprocal and respectful relationships, though it does not always prioritize Mexico. Texas, while more contentious in migration and security issues, shares a longer border with Mexico and is more proactive in its commercial engagement.

Efforts to decentralize diplomacy require rethinking the bilateral relationship and redesigning a structure that currently prioritizes federal capitals and governments, especially on the Mexican side. They should also explore new collaboration areas, such as communication, security, culture, technology, and more.

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