Towards 2030: White Papers on the Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relationship

Every twelve years, presidential terms in the United States and Mexico begin at the same time. In 2024, Americans elected Donald Trump and Mexicans elected Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president in North America.

The start of each twelve-year cycle represents an opportunity to assess the state of the U.S.-Mexico relationship and to offer a series of recommendations on how to avoid major risks and take advantage of emerging opportunities.

Two university research centers—one on the West Coast, the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California San Diego (USMEX), and the other on the East Coast, the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard University (DRCLAS)—joined efforts to publish a series of papers and recommendations on key topics in the bilateral relationship during the joint presidencies of Sheinbaum (October 2024–October 2030) and Trump (January 2025–January 2029). The topics addressed include North American competitiveness, decentralized diplomacy (focusing on the cases of California and Texas), energy, migration, and education.

USMEX and DRCLAS are grateful for the careful editing work of June Carolyn Erlick, editor of ReVista, and recognize her passion for Latin American affairs.

Will there necessarily be a clash between two presidents like Sheinbaum and Trump, who hold such different views on the role of government and international relations?

Our answer is: not necessarily. Analysts and observers of the bilateral relationship had predicted a “perfect storm” between Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Donald Trump. In reality, the relationship between the two leaders was respectful and distant, consisting mainly of phone calls and one visit by the former to the White House, which went smoother than expected.

During the first months of the Sheinbaum and Trump administrations, the surprise has been Trump’s “respectful” and even, at times, cordial attitude toward the Mexican president. Without making predictions—because with Trump one is bound to be wrong—it is likely that the bilateral relationship over the four years in which these two leaders overlap will be a kind of “roller coaster.” That is, there will be no shortage of difficulties and setbacks, as well as unexpected points of agreement.

What follows is a brief summary of each paper included in this volume. 

North American competitiveness

Meredith Lilly, Professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, synthesizes and expands on the discussions held by a group of experts from the three North American countries on how to take advantage of the U.S.-China trade war to attract more supply chains to the region and improve competitiveness. Lilly recommends that the region seek to consolidate its identity by maintaining joint objectives toward China, securing regional supply chains from external risks, and developing a plan to address the distributional consequences of the industrial policy implemented by Washington. Finally, she advocates for strengthening collaboration at the subnational level, that is, between Canadian provinces and the states of the United States and Mexico. A good example is Nuevo León, a Mexican state that has succeeded in attracting supply chains thanks to its well-developed ecosystem.

Decentralized diplomacy

Mexico City and Washington, especially, are highly polarized, politically speaking. This is why it is important for Mexican diplomacy to take advantage of its vast consular network (52 consulates) to strengthen its local presence, particularly with state governments. There are two border states, California and Texas, that should receive special attention from Mexico. These states, which have the largest economies in the entire union, account for more than half of the bilateral relationship. Therefore, it is recommended to leverage Texas’s economic interest in its southern neighbor to strengthen economic and trade relations, and to fully engage Mexico’s “natural partners”: chambers of commerce, civil society organizations advocating for human rights, and particularly Latino political power, which is more established in California. The Mexican consuls in Sacramento and Austin, the capitals of those states, must be carefully selected to serve as regional ambassadors.

Energy

Carlos Pascual, Alejandra León, and David Crisostomo explain how, even though the energy systems of Mexico and the United States are highly interconnected, they are misaligned. This leads them to argue that stability in economic and trade relations is central to enabling energy cooperation. Furthermore, they emphasize that such stability is essential to promote private investment, which is necessary for Mexico’s energy security and transition. The authors also recommend investing in critical energy infrastructure with support from the private sector and reaching an agreement on how the USMCA will protect such private investment, particularly in light of upcoming changes in the judiciary resulting from the reform designed by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Finally, they point out that private investment in renewable energy, both for transmission and distribution, must be promoted.

Migration

This will be a contentious issue during the Sheinbaum and Trump presidencies. The latter returned to the White House with promises of unprecedented deportations and border closures. Andrew Selee, Theresa Cardinal Brown, Rodolfo Cruz Piñeiro, and Ariel G. Ruiz Soto believe that the divergent migration interests of both leaders will continue to sow confrontations and, at times, even possibilities for cooperation. The authors note that to mitigate migration pressures, both leaders will need to establish an orderly deportation process, ensuring sufficient services to assist repatriated Mexicans and deportees from third countries. They should also seek binational measures to control the shared border and negotiate differentiated measures for those who have lived in the United States for prolonged periods—for example, those who have been there for more than ten years. Finally, the process for granting temporary work visas must be streamlined.

Educational exchange

Santiago García Álvarez and I consider the promotion of academic exchange and student mobility to be essential in the relationship between both countries, as it has not kept pace with the economic integration achieved over the past three decades. We argue that Mexico requires three structural changes to fully benefit from the U.S. university system. First, there should be universal English learning. All students in Mexico need to learn this language, as only in this way will they break through a nationalist glass ceiling. Second, the curriculum must be modernized to incorporate technology and innovation, as well as academic programs that promote competitiveness based on market demands. Finally, Mexico needs to become a more attractive destination for foreign students and invest more in research and scientific development. Among the specific bilateral recommendations, the need to expand and strengthen the application of in-state tuition for Mexican border students stands out. Finally, the establishment of cross-border educational working groups is recommended, along with the facilitation and simplification of visa procedures.

This series of working papers thus seeks to provide actionable recommendations to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. It highlights the importance of further building institutional ties, subnational initiatives, and shared interests to ensure that this critical partnership remains resilient and mutually beneficial through 2030 and beyond. By drawing on the expertise of scholars and practitioners, we hope to contribute to a more stable and forward-looking bilateral agenda.

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