Mexico White Papers

Every twelve years, presidential terms in the United States and Mexico begin at the same time. In 2024, Americans elected Donald Trump and Mexicans elected Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president in North America.

Following the severe economic and societal disruptions stemming from the global Covid-19 pandemic, many countries vowed to “build back better” to ensure greater supply chain resilience moving forward. This imperative took on new urgency as armed conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Red Sea have strained global trade routes and the strength of those supply chains. Ongoing U.S.-China rivalry has added further stress, with trading partners on both sides working to safeguard their supply chains, from raw materials to intermediate components and finished goods.

If California and Texas were countries, they would undoubtedly be the most important nations for Mexico after the United States. These border states are the most populous and wealthy in the northern neighboring country. They account for nearly half of the total trade between the two nations and host approximately two-thirds of the Mexican diaspora.

The energy systems of Mexico and the United States are deeply interconnected. Their respective energy policies are misaligned to take full advantage of that potential. Increasingly, the interwoven ties among immigration, trade, drug trafficking and energy will make policy outcomes more complex and unpredictable. What can be done?

The U.S. and Mexican governments have different interests on migration but at times have found significant convergence on cooperation. The Mexican government prioritizes the protection of its own migrants abroad, especially in the United States, as well as those who return to Mexico. It also wants to control migration to avoid perceptions of disorder—a domestic political issue—while integrating those migrants living in the country and promoting legal migration pathways in the hemisphere (as part of regional leadership).

Mexico is the United States’ primary trading partner. This has been achieved through a long process of economic and trade cooperation over the past 30 years. Without a doubt, Mexico has fully leveraged its proximity to the most dynamic market.